[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N21W 3N30W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 41W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 3N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-35W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA W OF 83W. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE E OF 93W WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND SE US WITH
A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 21N77W TO
NEAR 10N82W. POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 22N81W TO 17N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W CARIBBEAN. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N68W TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N74W TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
NEAR 27N57W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
W OF 40W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N
OF 17N E OF 40W WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W TO
17N31W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W W TO
26N39W DISSIPATING TO 27N45W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF
THE ATLC WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 26N52W AND A 1021
MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N24W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-120 KT IS
OVER THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
27N14W.

$$
WALLACE



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