[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 3N35W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 21W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS CLIPPING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF A LINE
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CUBA NEAR 23N84W INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE E OF 93W
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND A 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR
24N96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL BUT
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NEAR 15N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
20N77W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AND DRY THIS MORNING.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N71W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE LEADING FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N58W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 16N E OF 45W WITH THE MEAN AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO 16N35W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N27W W TO 28N38W DISSIPATING TO 28N52W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N29W TO 23N34W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS NEAR 25N47W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N23W. A JET
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OVER THE TROPICS EXTENDING
FROM 20N27W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N14W.

$$
WALLACE


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