[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 26N80W 23N86W MOVING E.  IT IS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER
AIR WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TRAILS THE
OTHER COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA.
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE E GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 92W.  20-30 KT NW WINDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO AND TEXAS PRODUCING
MAINLY SWLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N FLORIDA.  EXPECT... THE
COLD FRONT TO EXIT FLORIDA AND BE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA WITH CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SRN NICARAGUA ALONG
22N78W 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N68W.  EXTREMELY DRY SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N71W
22N78W.  A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA
ALONG 32N75W 26N80W. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF BOTH FRONTS.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 30N33W 28N45W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 40W.  A SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA ALONG 10N33W TO
BEYOND 21N10W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

$$
FORMOSA




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