[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N7W 5N18W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
1S46W TO 1S53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 25W AND
36W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OUTSIDE THE
AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF WATERS NOW. A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS
AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 21N83W 31N71W JET STREAM IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N70W TO 22N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 22N76W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN JAMAICA
TO 16N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N79W TO WESTERN
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE IN BETWEEN 20N76W 15N79W 9N80W AND 22N81W 18N84W
17N89W IN BELIZE. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TOWARD 76W...
AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTH OF 6N...GOING FROM
COLOMBIA EASTWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA...BEYOND 10N60W AND 10N50W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...PASSING OVER CUBA AND THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY...WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N83W 26N76W BEYOND 31N71W. THE 27/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE FASTEST WIND
SPEEDS RANGE FROM 80 TO 125 KT NORTH OF 24N. BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH AND WEST OF
20N33W 26N27W 31N24W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 29N52W. ALL THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N24W TO 27N25W
TO 25N27W TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
20N32W TO 17N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W 26N39W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT GOES FROM 26N39W CURVING TO 27N47W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTH OF 6N...GOING FROM
COLOMBIA EASTWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA...BEYOND 10N60W TO 10N50W...
8N40W AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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