[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N30W 3N40W EQ50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-16W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 30N84W 22N85W
MOVING E. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  STRONG 25-30 KT NW WINDS AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO AND TEXAS PRODUCING MAINLY SWLY FLOW AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 110 KT
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO N FLORIDA.
EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT FLORIDA AND BE OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO W HONDURAS ALONG 22N85W 15N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 75W-82W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N68W.
EXTREMELY DRY SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.  EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N51W
30N57W 30N65W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N30W.  THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 28N25W 26N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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