[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260458
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N18W 6N31W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 3W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH A THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE FAR E
US. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN DAYTONA
BEACH AND FORT MYERS TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N83W INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N87W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALE
FORCE REMAIN ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N W OF THE COLD FRONT. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF FROM
S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE FAR SE US.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC WITH EXTREMELY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERING ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTEND ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 23N83W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 24N68W COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF 45W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004
MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO
BEYOND 32N77W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC N OF 16N E OF 45W A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING S INTO THE REGION TO THE W
NEAR 37W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1019 MB
LOW NEAR 32N22W SW TO 27N26W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-100 KT IS OVER THE
TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 28N14W.

$$
WALLACE




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