[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 6N20W 5N30W 4N37W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN
2W AND 15W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 16W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
INTO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH/CYCLONIC CENTER
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N
INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IS WEST OF 31N83W 25N85W
19N87W. THIS FEATURE IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SWINGING AROUND THE CYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...FROM 28N BEYOND 32N IN EAST TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
82W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
85W AND 87W. PERIPHERAL DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS FAN OUT AWAY FROM
THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AND COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 31N72W 25N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST TROUGH SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
60W TO 80W. AN EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AREA OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
ALSO COVERS A LARGE PART OF THIS AREA OF TROUGH. A SMALL AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION IS FOUND ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 9N81W TO 11N84W. TRADEWIND LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THESE CLOUDS ALSO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM 60W
TO 80W...AND THEN CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 40W. ALL THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 27N25W TO
20N30W TO 15N50W...POSSIBLY COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE MIDDLE
LEVEL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE 25/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N25W 13N39W 11N53W 10N59W.
WIND SPEEDS IN THIS JET STREAM REACH 110 KT. THIS ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N278W TO 26N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N30W TO 26N35W TO 30N43W. ANOTHER MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 32N AND WEST OF 40W. ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT AT
THIS MOMENT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 31N48W. THIS FEATURE PROBABLY IS
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N56W TO 30N61W TO 29N70W.
THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 29N70W AND CONTINUES TO 30N76W.
THE FRONT CHANGES AGAIN TO WARM AND CONTINUES FROM 30N76W TO
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EVENTUALLY IT CONNECTS WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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