[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N30W 4N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM
1N-9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS
IS COMPRISED OF A 1008 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N92W THAT HAS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S TO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE
NE GULF AND SE U.S. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NE TO E
WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE AREA...THOUGH FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW
FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 20 KT S TO SW WINDS
E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANCHORED BY A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH WRN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
OUTSIDE OF THE NE PORTION...AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN. THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY SPARKED N OF THE
YUCATAN SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FORMING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE
MID TO UPPER AIR. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WRN PORTION AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTION.
AT THE SFC...TRADES DOMINATE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. THIS
CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY...WHILE LIGHTER SE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHIFT NW TO
N 15-20 KT INTO TUE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BECOMES COLD
NEAR 29N77W AND IS MARKED BY A DISTINCT ROPE CLOUD ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE SEEN
OFF NRN FLORIDA WITH THIS PATTERN...WITH ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE
ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N
AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW NOW JUST S OF LOUISIANA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N30W EXTENDING SW
TO 17N45W AND THEN W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N25W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N43W. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ARE LIMITED TO THE AREA N OF
26N BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING W OF
35W WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC SFC HIGH NEAR 35N42W TAKING OVER. A
SWLY JET LIES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH THE COAST OF WRN
AFRICA....THIS IS SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE
TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN NE SOUTH AMERICA AND NW AFRICA.

$$
WILLIS




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