[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 7N25W 4N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA
NEAR 3N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 36W.
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 2N
ALONG 1W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 3N1W. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W FROM BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF 11N WEST OF 55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
BETWEEN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND
NEAR 29N100W TO WEST CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN BEYOND 19N109W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH/CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 83W FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD BEYOND 30N IN FLORIDA.
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N95W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N99W.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER TO 27N90W...
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 28N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...
PASSING THROUGH 31N72W TO 29N80W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N93W 26N92W 27N92W 29N92W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 83W TROUGH PASSES OVER
CUBA TO 14N82W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS RIDGE IS
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IS INDICATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 76W...MOVING AROUND
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 16N42W TO 16N54W TO 15N64W 15N72W AND 12N78W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 12N84W
10N76W WITH THE ITCZ. THE UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 10N50W. THE 24/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW SOME 50 TO 60 KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N59W BEYOND 9N50W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 40W. ALL THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N32W TO 26N35W TO
22N38W TO 16N42W 16N54W TO 15N64W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N29W
TO 27N36W TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 25N47W TO 23N54W. THE BAND
OF WINDS IN THE JET STREAM FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUES WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 9N50W TO 15N34W TO 17N27W BEYOND 21N20W.
THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 24/1500 UTC CIMSS DATA
ARE FROM 90 TO 100 KT EAST OF 40W.

$$
MT




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