[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N16W 4N30W 1N40W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 89W WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO INTO
THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS N
FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE MEANDERING W ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W
CONTINUING S INTO E MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 84W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 17N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 13N FROM
68W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC AND BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO S NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N63W. DIFFLUENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 50W TO THE SE US COAST.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM
26W-45W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N29W S TO 26N35W AND A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N33W SW TO 29N39W. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 22N34W TO 17N37W. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N31W N TO BEYOND
32N28W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N32W TO BEYOND 32N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO US E COAST WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 29N57W AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E
OVER AFRICA. AN EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N49W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
ALSO EXTENDING N JUST INLAND ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
15N TO BEYOND 32N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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