[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240456
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N23W 2N35W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 10W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE MEANDERING SW ALONG 245N91W TO A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE SE TEXAS COAST CONTINUING S INTO NE MEXICO. A SECOND WEAKER
1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM 27N96W TO 24N97W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF
N OF 23N W OF 94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N89W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO DAYTONA BEACH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 18N72W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 14N FROM 67W-77W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC AND BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. VERY
DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W NE TO BEYOND 32N67W. DIFFLUENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 60W TO OVER NE FLORIDA. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N FROM 28W-45W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W S TO 25N36W
WITH A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION AND A
LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N33W TO 17N36W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO US
E COAST AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E OVER AFRICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 20W EXTENDING N
BEYOND 32N AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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