[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 6N31W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 7W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 83W WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF E TEXAS TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
A 1005 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W WITH A
DEVELOPING OCCLUDED FRONT TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N86W...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE W
ATLC. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W ALONG 26N87W TO FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 30N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA N OF THE WARM FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N61W W TO 17N78W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCING
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N60W COVERING THE
CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF 45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE
REGION IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ACROSS BERMUDA TO
NEAR 29N78W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N28W S TO NEAR 15N38W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W S TO 24N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED
WELL N OF THE REGION. AN EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N12W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net