[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112251
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ARE
ORGANIZING THEMSELVES MORE AND MORE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF 23N INTO TEXAS AND
NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW CROSSES MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND
NORTHWARD. DRY AIR ALSO ABOUNDS NORTH OF 23N IN MEXICO INTO
TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WEST OF 92W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANTICYCLONIC THANKS TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS ANCHORED TO A SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM 20N TO 26N EAST OF 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL RUNS
FROM BELIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 23N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE BELIZE-TO-SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ORIGINATES FROM A 12N78W ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING/HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
INLAND IN PANAMA FROM 79W WESTWARD TO THE COSTA RICA BORDER.
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH
OF 12N WEST OF 80W HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AND/OR ALREADY HAS
DISSIPATED. THIS AREA IS STILL NORTH OF THE CURRENT ITCZ...
AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COVERS A LARGE PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 34N53W TO 30N56W TO 24N65W. THIS FEATURE NOW IS MORE
IN PHASE WITH THE SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
35N52W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER THROUGH 32N52W
TO 30N53W 26N57W AND 23N62W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N87W 24N71W 24N56W 26N43W
BEYOND 32N47W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N56W 30N51W BEYOND 32N49W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MOROCCO AND ALGERIA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N28W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 10N TO 21N WITH NO SURROUNDING
PRECIPITATION. IT IS A WEAK SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN
37W AND 60W.

$$
MT


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