[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
15W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
23W-27W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 20N90W 24N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE
TO ON SHORE FLOW.  A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC OFF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO S LOUISIANA
PRODUCING ELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W PRODUCING 20-30 KT ELY WINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 85W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE
GULF E OF 87W AND S OF 27N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING 20-30 KT ELY FLOW.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  FURTHER S... SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
ABC ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 13N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVER THE ENTIRE
SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION IS NOTED.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N73W.
A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N52W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N60W 22N67W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 48W-54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 21N41W TO 13N42W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N39W.  ANOTHER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N29W.

$$
FORMOSA




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