[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N22W 2N28W 1N40W EQ50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 92W.
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 20N92W N TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 28N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W
COVERING THE W ATLC AND E GULF DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE SE GULF TO 26N E OF 86W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E US
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW VENEZUELA EXTENDING N INTO THE W ATLC
ALONG 80W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 17N W OF 80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W.
ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY UPPER AIR
AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N E OF 74W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVER THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 67W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 48W-67W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING SW
TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
250 NM E OF THE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N49W NE TO BEYOND 32N41W. AN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 23N32W COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-30N BETWEEN
23W-40W  WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA. THE UPPER LOW OVER W AFRICA HAS BECOME CUT-OFF AND IS
MOVING FURTHER E. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N44W TO
13N47W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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