[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 5N30W 5N40W 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 26N-35W...AND WITHIN 30-45NM NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY WLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE GULF NORTH OF 24N. THESE WINDS
ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 90W AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 24N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING
ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. A SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG
86W FROM 22N-30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THU/FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE W GULF LATE TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP/CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
WRN PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE WRN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF COLOMBIA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE REGIONAL WATERS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO JAMAICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT RAIN ARE AFFECTING
CENTRAL AMERICA BUT PARTICULARLY HONDURAS. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS
BLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ALONG 28N60W 28N68W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM W OF 52W.
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STREAMING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
NEWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 27N57W. A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THIS AREA IS
ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N
THROUGH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING
OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 20N32W...WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT
UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W INTO WESTERN AFRICA. THE
E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1033MB HIGH
NEAR 32N25W.

$$
GR




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