[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5N30W 5N40W 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-70 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR
5N43W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 48N-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF ALONG 91/92W SOUTH OF 26N
WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S..
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE VERY DRY AIR
IS PRESENT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. A SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W FROM 22N-30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
GULF THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU/FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE W GULF LATE TODAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIP/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE WRN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF COLOMBIA WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE LESSER ANTILLES SOME CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO
JAMAICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA
BUT PARTICULARLY HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS
BLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ALONG 29N60W 28N72W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT W OF 55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT
E OF 55W. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STREAMING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC TO
NEAR 26N60W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 52W-61W.
THIS AREA IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING N THROUGH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS
SEEN SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 20N32W...WHICH IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W INTO
WESTERN AFRICA. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED
BY A 1033MB HIGH NEAR 32N25W.


$$
GR





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net