[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 5N30W 4N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W...
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS
ALONG 30N81W 27N90W 26N97W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1020
MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N86W.  THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH THE LOW
CENTER.  NLY 15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF THE
LINE 28N83W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM E CUBA
TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 21N76W 10N76W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-82W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS E OF 67W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS BETWEEN 72W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 55W-72W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF E CUBA ALONG 27N74W
21N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 71W-76W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N43W 28N55W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N
BETWEEN 25W-50W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N
OF 10N E OF 25W.  EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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