[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
4N42W 6N47W 8N51W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N102W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS TO W CUBA TO THE
COAST OF BELIZE ALONG 26N78W 22N85W 16N88W.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE FRONT HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY.  15-20 KT NELY WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF 28N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AT 18N83W IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY N
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
OVERCAST CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 18N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN
72W-100W.  FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 55W-70W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 26N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1032 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 40W.  NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

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FORMOSA







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