[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N42W 6N47W 8N51W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING
OUT...RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR IS MIXING WITH THE
MOISTURE AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 19N89W TO 17N94W. THE FRONT STARTS AGAIN NEAR
17N97W...BEING BROKEN UP OVER THE GAP AREA...AND THEN IT CURVES
TO 23N102W. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN EAST TEXAS AND IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP TO GIVE THE FORECAST OF A HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY MARINER IN THAT
REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EPAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ORIGINATES FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 17N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N75W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER
WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN A FEW
DAYS AGO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
THE 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N64W - OVER PUERTO RICO - 12N67W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 31N53W 25N57W SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO DISAPPEARED
FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 05/0600 UTC DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUPPORT FOR ITS CONTINUED EXISTENCE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 17N64W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STILL-DEVELOPING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N39W. LOW CLOUDS
UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM STILL ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY WITH
TIME. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W ARE
BEING CARRIED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THAT AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N48W TO
28N57W TO 29N67W.

$$
MT






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