[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RUNS FROM
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING
STATIONARY FROM 20N87W TO 18N91W. THE FRONT STARTS AGAIN NEAR
17N96W...CURVING TO 23N102W. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
EAST TEXAS AND FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN MEXICO ARE HELPING
TO GIVE THE FORECAST OF A GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS...AND A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY MARINER IN THAT REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE EPAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIAHSFEP2.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ORIGINATES FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 17N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N75W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER
WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN A FEW
DAYS AGO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS
EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL
AMERICA.IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W
17N64W 10N65W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE TRADE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED A BIT FROM THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N53W 25N57W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ANALYZED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
MORE OR LESS THE SAME SPOT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
PRESENT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N41W...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITH TIME. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W...EAST OF
THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N61W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N67W AND 15N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W
AND 59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 16N61W 9N61W. A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS MARKS THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N51W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N44W TO 27N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N55W 25N36W
16N43W 10N55W 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N21W TO 13N47W.

$$
MT



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