[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N30W 5N40W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS AFFECTED THE GULF SINCE
LAST THURSDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY
PIECE DOES STILL EXTEND FROM WRN CUBA THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THOUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUDS STILL EXIST IN
WAKE OF THE OLD FRONT S OF 28N. UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF HAS
BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL WITH JUST A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
FEEL...AROUND A RIDGE THAT HAS FLATTENED FROM ITS ORIGIN NEAR NE
NICARAGUA. THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH A 1032 MB CENTER NEAR JACKSON MISSISSIPPI...AND
A 1034 MB CENTER OVER NE MEXICO. THE GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...LEAVING LIGHTER NE WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS RELAX FURTHER INTO
WED BUT INCREASE THU/FRI BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTENSIVE DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SEEN HOVERING OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ON THIS EVENINGS WV IMAGERY. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO E THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN...FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH NRN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N64W.
THE UPPER LOW HAS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N AND E OF 67W. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NNE FROM THE WRN GULF
OF HONDURAS TO WRN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUDS EXIST
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GOMEX. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 26N65W 19N68W 11N68W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ARISING
FROM THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER INTERESTING BUT FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT
SFC FEATURE IS THE WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE OF NNE WITH NE FLOW THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA. THIS MAY
ALSO BE PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA BETWEEN
COSTA RICA AND ERN CUBA. TRADES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
VARIETY THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N63W 24N80W.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
NOTED AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT WELL NE OF THE
AREA...ZIPPING AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH WED. THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
A FEW ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH IT FROM
15N-25N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO ITS
E...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 52W EXTENDING N THROUGH THE DEEP
TROPICS. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
31N44W....WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE ERN ATLC
FROM NW AFRICA ALONG 30N9W 24N22W 17N41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MOVING ENE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 17W-34W...WHICH INCLUDES THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATES THE ERN
ATLC E OF 55W...FROM A 1031 MB CENTER JUST S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N27W.

$$
WILLIS




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