[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N50W 15N54W 10N56W
7N57W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 5N30W 4N46W 4N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W...
AND FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W...ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
3N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N31W 5N40W...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
5N40W 6N45W 10N50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN 18N84W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 TO 480 NM
EAST OF 30N84W 24N93W 19N95W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
THROUGH 28N83W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W
TO SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...ON TOP OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N56W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS
70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EAST OF 80W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N82W
12N84W. SOME OF THIS IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ...AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 23N56W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM 26N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND BERMUDA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF 20N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...ALONG
39W NORTH OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W
TO 28N72W BEYOND 33N58W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net