[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 54W/55W HAS BEEN
REANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF AN
UPPER LOW AS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED
AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 25N43W TO 9N54W WITH A WELL
DEFINED WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...BUOYS LOCATED ACROSS THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ALSO REVEALED THE WIND SHIFT...WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS. AN AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 3N30W 6N45W 6N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-80 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
SEEN OVER SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100
NM BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FOLLOW THE
FRONT COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POOLED AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO. THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE EXTENDS A
RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF PRODUCING NLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
WESTERN CUBA/NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W. REINFORCING HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SUN PUSHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MON MORNING. STRONG NLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN INVADE THE GULF...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN PART
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS A VERY STRONG 1052
MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING CREATING A VERY
STRONG GRADIENT OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN CARRIED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE NELY WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA...
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER WESTERN CUBA/NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN
WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG ELY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND BERMUDA. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N W OF 60W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER...JUST E OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N57W ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 58W-58W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
TROUGH...AND EXTENDS NWD ALONG 37/38W FROM AN UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED OVER NE BRAZIL. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS NEAR 36N36W GIVING THE ATLC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA STRONG NELY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
DETAILS. DRY AIR IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WHILE A COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH.

$$
GR




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net