[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 13N55W 3N55W
IN SURINAME MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS...WEAKENING WITH
TIME...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 4N30W 5N40W 4N50W 4N53W IN EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 3N31W 5N40W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N40W 6N45W 10N50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS
TO AN 18N84W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 TO 480 NM
EAST OF 30N84W 24N93W 19N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER JUST NORTH OF 30N ALONG 82W...INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 26N85W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N88W TO 16N93W...

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 77W...UP TO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST
AS 68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS PREVALENT EAST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N81W 14N84W 20N90W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 26N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EVERYWHERE NORTH OF 20N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING
AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...ALONG 38W/39W NORTH OF 10N.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W TO 30N72W AND BEYOND
32N60W.

$$
MT



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