[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT.  STIFF
UPPER WLY FLOW IS OVER THE AREA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N30W 9N53W 7N60W.  A FEW
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM N FLORIDA NEAR
30N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT HAS OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND 15-20 KT NLY SURFACE WINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W.  A
JETSTREAM WITH MOISTURE EXTENDS INLAND FROM N MEXICO TO SE TEXAS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LINE 24N107W 30N98W.  EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
GO STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 87W-91W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 73W.  IN FACT...SAN
JUAN RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 64W-68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF
70W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W.  EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
37N42W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC
FROM 32N18W 30N26W 22N38W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N53W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N67W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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