[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 3N20W 3N40W EQ50W.  NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
10W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
25W-31W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
35W-37W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 25N95W 22N99W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W.  A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG
32N90W 27W93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE SQUALL LINE.  10 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE
IMPRESSIVE 20-30 KT SELY WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO SE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS..
SLOW MOVING RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE
SE GULF S OF 26N AND E OF 90W WHERE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS.  EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO AN OMEGA
BLOCK BETWEEN CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE W ATLANTIC.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY E AND BE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MEXICO S OF TAMPICO DUE
TO CONTINUED SELY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN 68W-72W.  SAN JUAN
RADAR SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA CHANNEL.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 73W-76W. TRADEWINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT N OF N COLOMBIA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N
OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH MORE SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT N
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1007 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N66W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 30N63W
24N64W 20N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E
OF FRONT N OF 24N.  A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N43W
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC PRODUCING MOSTLY ELY
SURFACE FLOW FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-75W.  AN EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N68W.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 55W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-55W. AN
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N32W.  IN THE
TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W...
WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK EXISTS BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC AND
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL ALSO ONLY DRIFT E AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE
FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA


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