[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 4N20W 4N30W 2N40W EQ50W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-7N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
2N-8N BETWEEN 8W-17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-39W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN
42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG
30N93W 25N95W 22N99W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W.  A SQUALL LINE
IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N88W 27W93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE.  10 KT NLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE IMPRESSIVE 20-30 KT SELY WINDS ARE OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SE OF THE SQUALL LINE AND
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. SLOW MOVING RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 87W.   SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF S OF 26N AND E OF 90W WHERE
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO AN OMEGA BLOCK BETWEEN CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND THE W ATLANTIC.  THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALSO MOVE SLOWLY E AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MEXICO S OF TAMPICO DUE TO CONTINUED SELY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA
PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.
SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA
CHANNEL.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 72W-75W. TRADEWINDS
ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT N OF N
COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 75W...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH MORE SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT
N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1006 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N66W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO NE HISPANIOLA ALONG 30N62W 26N62W 19N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT.  A
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N40W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC PRODUCING MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N68W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN
55W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 20W-55W. AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N32W.  IN THE TROPICS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W... WHILE SELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK
EXISTS BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL ALSO ONLY DRIFT E AND
MAINTAIN CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA



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