[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 5N2W 4N10W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N7W 5N17W 3N30W 3N41W
5N47W 10N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO BEING LINED UP ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
ITCZ. SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA...AND THEN EXTENDS NORTHWARD...THROUGH NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W...BEYOND 32N89W
IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 94W AND 108W WITH A CYCLONIC SYSTEM
WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EAST TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COSTA
RICA-TO-MISSISSIPPI RIDGE IS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ON TOP OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 27N94W 30N92W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER LAND IN LOUISIANA...FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N82W BEYOND 32N80W JUST OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA...ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N88W BEYOND 32N89W IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING WITH
TIME...ARE FOUND FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA 33N67W TO 25N67W TO 14N66W MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
REST OF THE OPEN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 70W AND LAKE MARACAIBO...PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N67W...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N67W TO 14N66W IN THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...TO
25N67W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 21N75W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W
AND 65W. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR
31N69W AT 29/1800 UTC...WITH A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW TO 30N69W
28N69W 27N71W AND CURVING TO 29N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W BEYOND 32N89W IN
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW GOES FROM THE RIDGE...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...
TOWARD THE 33N67W 14N66W TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS
NEAR 39N46W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 38N43W TO 32N44W 25N44W TO 15N44W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 40N BETWEEN
24W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N23W BEYOND 33N30W.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT ONLY A TROUGH WILL STAY IN
THE AREA. IT DOES NOT DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW CENTER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net