[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ FROM 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...TO 4N10W 2N20W...TO THE
EQUATOR AT 24W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 41W...TO 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...FROM 1N TO 3N
BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N118W JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS
MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND TURNING ANTICYCLONICALLY
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...33N100W...TOWARD THE GULF WATERS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS PRETTY MUCH ALONG 100W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
WITH ITS BASE REACHING THE GULF WATERS NEAR 27N87W. THIS MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 28N90W TO 26N95W...
AND THEN FROM 26N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W AND 27N101W.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE GULF TO 25N86W AND THEN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR NEAR 100W AND BEYOND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE
RIDGE RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 24N82W AND 24N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LONG RIDGE STARTS OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
6N33W TO 8N46W 9N57W 14N76W TO 16N83W JUST EAST OF HONDURAS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST
OF 70W. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE EVEN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE BAHAMAS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N70W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MARACAIBO
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTAL COLOMBIA IN THE
GULF OF URABA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 55W. SOME OF THE WESTERLY FLOW COMES
FROM THE POSITIONING WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 28N46W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW CENTER...SOUTH OF 20N...IS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AROUND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE 28N46W
LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE IN PHASE NOW WITH WHAT HAS BEEN
A DEEP LAYER LOW AND TROUGH FOR THE LAST WEEK. THIS DEEP LAYER
FEATURE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT NOW
PASSING THROUGH 31N32W TO 28N39W...AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 28N39W TO 25N46W 24N59W AND 20N63W. BROAD LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
20W AND 55W...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THIS DEEP LAYER LOW AND
TROUGH. A TROUGH REMAINS FROM A LOW CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN
ALGERIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR.

$$
MT



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