[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 1N20W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF WATERS
W OF 88W ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN
FRINGES. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH BEHIND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT E OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W.  A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IS JUST STARTING TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 33N80W TO 27N91W
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY... CONTINUING WEST TO NEAR 27N101W.
SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN ST PETERSBURG TO
TITUSVILLE SOUTH TO KEY WEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 24N-27N FROM 82W-84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...A LONG TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA W ALONG 6N27W 7N48W 11N76W TO NEAR 11N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W CONTINUES
TO SPREAD NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DRY UPPER AIR
INDICATED N OF 12N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE WATERS S OF 33N W OF 51W WHERE
THE UPPER FLOW THEN TURNS CYCLONIC INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS N TO S ALONG 43W. UPPER MOISTURE IS
SPREADING E THROUGH THE BAHAMAS N OF 25N. AN EMBEDDED UPPER
CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 27N43W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EXTENDING NORTH TO 1008
MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 190 M E OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER EAST A
STATIONARY FRONT  ALONG 30N35W 25N47W 23N57W 20N63W...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.  A SURFACE HIGH 1027 MB IS NEAR 37N44W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 46N30W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 40N33W 27N45W.  A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR
IS NOTED WITHIN 540 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N12E 24N1W 30N12W.
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER AFRICA NEAR 4N26E WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA.

$$
JP/DS


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