[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ FROM 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...TO 4N10W 2N20W...TO THE
EQUATOR AT 24W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 41W...TO 2N51W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
7W AND 9W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 32N119W JUST OFF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND TURNING
ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...32N100W...TOWARD THE
GULF WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS PRETTY MUCH ALONG
100W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. WITH ITS BASE REACHING THE GULF WATERS NEAR
28N89W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N95W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W...AND THEN
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM 24N98W TO 25N100W AND 27N101W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY
THROUGH THE GULF TO 25N86W AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR BORDER NEAR 100W
AND BEYOND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 24N84W AND 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LONG RIDGE STARTS OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
6N33W TO 8N46W 9N57W 14N76W TO 16N83W JUST EAST OF HONDURAS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WEST
OF 70W. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE EVEN
EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N70W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W AND NEAR
9N76W ALONG THE COAST JUST NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF URABA...
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 55W. SOME OF THE WESTERLY FLOW COMES
FROM THE POSITIONING WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 29N46W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW CENTER...SOUTH OF 20N...IS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AROUND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE 29N46W
LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE IN PHASE NOW WITH WHAT HAS BEEN
A DEEP LAYER LOW AND TROUGH FOR THE LAST WEEK. THIS DEEP LAYER
FEATURE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT NOW
PASSING THROUGH 31N32W TO 28N39W...AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 28N39W TO 25N46W 24N59W AND 20N63W. BROAD LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
20W AND 55W...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THIS DEEP LAYER LOW AND
TROUGH. A TROUGH REMAINS FROM A LOW CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN
ALGERIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR.

$$
MT




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