[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 5N8W 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W...TO 1S50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM...FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 3N
TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND
53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN A RIDGE CONTINUES
TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO...ALL THE WAY TO EAST TEXAS. THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR IS
COLLIDING WITH A TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS COLD FRONT...WHICH COMES
FROM AN UPPER TEXAS 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING A
BIT MORE TO THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING UP A COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER AMOUNT OF SPACE NOW THAN THEY WERE TAKING UP 8 HOURS
AGO. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOW ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO
24.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
27N EAST OF 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA
COAST ALONG 75W TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AFTER PASSING OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. A NARROW TROUGH HAS SQUEEZED ITSELF INTO THE
PICTURE...FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THEN ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT
ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
YESTERDAY'S TROUGH WHICH REACHED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...NOW ALONG 32N56W 21N55W 17N55W. THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 11N68W 20N75W IS COVERED IN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BIG RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SPILLS OVER INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO 32N56W 21N55W 17N55W.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N47W TO 26N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH FROM THE LAST WEEK NOW
COVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD/
STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO... PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N40W
24N50W 20N60W TO THE EASTERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOROCCO AND 60W.

$$
MT




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