[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 5N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W...TO 1S30W 3S40W
3S45W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
2N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND
12W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN A RIDGE CONTINUES
TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO
TO 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH
TEXAS BARELY INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC OCEAN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES INTERIOR
CENTRAL AMERICA AND HEADS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TROUGH
SQUEEZES ITSELF INTO THE PICTURE...FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND
THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...RIGHT ON TOP OF THE
FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BASE OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD...
NOW ALONG 60W FROM 20N AND BEYOND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SOUTHWEST OF 12N64W
13N71W...19N71W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED MIDDLE TO UPPER
DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BIG RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SPILLS OVER INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BRINGING WITH IT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS NO IS JUST
EAST OF THE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO. A SURFACE
RIDGE
RUNS FROM 28N62W TO 26N75W TO 27N89W. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH COVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM
26N40W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS
TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE
MOROCCO TROUGH AND 60W.

$$
MT



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