[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 2N-9N
BETWEEN 8W-15W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22N-33N AND FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 43W-54W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-20W AND FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL AIR RIDGE CONTINUES TO STREAM
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO
EASTERN TEXAS TO NEAR 21N94W.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 35N89W CONTINUING SW TO
THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER...THEN WEST TO NEAR 32N107W....SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS
LOCATED FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 84W-89W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MEXICO LOCATED
NEAR 21N102W...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS FROM 81W-92W
S OF 26N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-87W...MAINLY OVER PANAMA...COLUMBIA AND
VENEZUELA MOVING NORTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  ELSEWHERE...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA W OF 87W.  A NARROW UPPER LEVER TROUGH HAS
SQUEEZED ITSELF INTO THE PICTURE...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA SOUTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 6N93W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33N50W WITH A RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO
DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  WESTERLY FLOW IS DOMINATING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE..THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE  STATIONARY
FRONT...ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N33W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR
19N65W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 45W-54W.  ELSEWHERE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH...COVERING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER MOROCCO AND 60W.

$$
JP/DS


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