[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 5N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W...TO 1S30W 3S40W
3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR...SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 100W. A SECOND AND DISTINCT
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...COVERS THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. SEPARATING THESE TWO AREAS
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR LINE ALONG 28N93W
22N95W TO A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
14N95W TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 28N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
CROSSES INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND HEADS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT
ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS SCENARIO IS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND
EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA NEAR 15N65W. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY AS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS JUST OUTSIDE
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W
AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND SOUTHERN HAITI. LOW CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...
MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE ISLAND. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM THE STORM CELLS NEAR
EL SALVADOR 8 HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
AS ABUNDANT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE DEVELOPING 14N95W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...SPILLS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 68W...AND WEST OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE WAS ON TOP
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DURING
THE LAST 16 TO 24 HOURS...NOW THROUGH 31N58W TO 25N58W 18N61W
15N65W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N45W.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 32N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N36W TO 28N40W 24N50W AND 20N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM TO 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 24N50W TO 20N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE 30N9W 20N25W TROUGH
FROM MOROCCO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND 60W.

$$
MT


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