[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250621
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W TO 2S30W 2S40W
2S43W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
1N TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND 6W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST
BETWEEN 8W AND 12W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR...SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 100W. A SECOND AND DISTINCT
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...COVERS THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. SEPARATING THESE TWO AREAS
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR LINE ALONG 28N95W
22N96W TO A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR
15N96W AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ONE
BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND BRANCH RUNS FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
CROSSES INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND HEADS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND ORIGINATES A BIT
ALSO IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN JUST CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS SCENARIO IS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND
EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN
HAITI. LOW CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH ARE FOUND FROM EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ARE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE DEVELOPING 15N96W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...SPILLS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 68W...AND WEST OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE WAS ON TOP
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DURING
THE LAST 16 TO 24 HOURS...NOW THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N61W 19N62W
15N67W. THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH WAS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO NOW REACHES 26N46W
AFTER PASSING THROUGH 32N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
TO 27N40W TO 25N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N44W TO
23N50W AND 20N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE 32N36W TO 29N40W TO 24N50W TO 20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO
24N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF
26N BETWEEN THE 30N9W 20N28W TROUGH FROM MOROCCO INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND 60W.

$$
MT


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