[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N30W 3N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 5W-8W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
14W-20W...FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 40W-47W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT 5-10
KT SW WINDS.  WARM FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.  A BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS N OF 25N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND
ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 14N
BETWEEN 72W-77W.  10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND S BELIZE.  ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 11N AND E OF 65W TO INCLUDE
TRINIDAD.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A THIN BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING A THIN BAND OF
HIGH CLOUD.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.  EXPECT THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION TO BE
OVER NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N52W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TOWARDS S FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 27N42W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1025 MB
HIGH IS SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-75W.  AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N59W.  MOSTLY WLY
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W.  AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER NE MOROCCO NEAR 33N2W.  IN
THE DEEP TROPICS... ELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.
EXPECT...THE TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO SHIFT ABOUT FIVE DEGREES E LONGITUDE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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