[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W...REACHING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...
AND CONTINUING TO 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND
8W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W...AND JUST EAST OF THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 47W
AND 51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AIR HAS BEEN HELPING TO FUEL THE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL FOR THE LAST 8 HOURS.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AT THIS TIME...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARE NORTHWEST OF 20N96W
27N91W 28N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N77W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W TO 27N87W AND 28N93W. THE SITUATION AT 24/0900 UTC SHOWED
MORE OF A PUSH TO THE NORTH OF A MASS OF WARM AIR...NORTH OF
26N EAST OF 90W...WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.
A SMALL AREA OF 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N84W
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.
THIS FLOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...NOW
OCCUPIED BY THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N. HIGH
CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY MARK THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BLOWING EASTWARD FROM SOME YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND A SMALL BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THAT AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS EVERYWHERE...EVEN IN THE MIDST OF SOME CLOUDINESS. THE
SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WEAKENING FROM ITS STAGE AS
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 6 HOURS AGO...RUNS FROM 19N61W
TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TO 18N71W ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE
OF SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE OF THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGH ARE PRESENT. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS SEEN NOW FROM
17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W IN THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY FROM THE ITCZ...ARE IN THE
GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE FOUND IN PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
THROUGH 32N66W TO 28N67W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N71W. THIS MEANS THAT THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE TROUGH...WEAKENING FROM ITS STAGE AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT 6 HOURS AGO...RUNS FROM 19N61W TO NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO TO 18N71W ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CUBA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MORE OF THE SAME WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGH ARE PRESENT. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS SEEN NOW FROM
17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W IN THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N41W TO 25N50W TO 19N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N60W 24N50W 28N44W BEYOND
32N39W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W 19N72W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH COVER
THE WEATHER NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. THIS DEEP LAYER
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N43W
TO 24N50W TO 20N59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM
A NORTHERN MOROCCO LOW CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 19N31W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N26W TO 26N37W AND 17N50W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net