[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W...REACHING THE EQUATOR AT 48W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE MOISTURE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AIR IS HELPING TO FUEL THE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 99W
AND 101W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS...
EXCEPT FOR THE AREA FROM 150 NM TO 200 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN
28N86W AND 21N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N77W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W TO 27N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N88W TO 28N93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 24/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CURVES
ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...AWAY FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST ALL THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF 15N WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM SOUTH AMERICA...AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NORTH OF
15N WEST OF 82W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF
74W...MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES
20N59W TO 19N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
19N62W TO PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO THE WEST CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG THE
BORDER WITH HAITI. PERIODICAL ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN
67W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 16 HOURS AGO...REACHING
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS ALONG
19N72W 28N69W BEYOND 32N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 20N. THIS TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...
PROBABLY HELPING TO ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE 32N68W 19N72W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEP
LAYER LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH COVER THE WEATHER NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W TO 20N59W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS ABOUT 275 NM
SOUTH OF THE PORTUGAL COAST 16 HOURS AGO FINALLY MOVED INLAND IN
NORTHERN MOROCCO. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND 19N31W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND THIS
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 32W. THE
GALE CENTER FROM 16 HOURS AGO MOVED INLAND ALSO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N27W
TO 27N35W AND 23N46W.

$$
MT


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