[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W2N50. ISOLATED MODERATE
AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN 360 NM
S OF THE AXIS E OF 20W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CONTINUES N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG
94W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N100W 28N100W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NNE ACROSS SE TEXAS THEN SPILLS E ACROSS
THE UPPER RIDGE...ALL W OF A LINE ALONG 22N95W 27N95W 29N88W.
ELSEWHERE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY DRY AIR WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CLUSTER NEAR 26.5N86.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N90W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT FROM 27N90W TO
28N95W. TO THE N OF THE FRONT A HIGH PRES 1017 MB IS NEAR
29N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 21N76W 16N82W 11N85W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 93W AND
83W THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH A BROAD RIDGE IS
NOTED WITH DRY AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO
THE N IS MAINTAINING EASTERLY TRADES WITH THE GRADIENT STRONGEST
S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE WESTERN N
ATLC WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 32N75W 21N76W WITH A SMALL
UPPER VORTEX NOTED NEAR 29N73W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE E...A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM A SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 8N56W
AND COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 68W AND 38W WITH THE
UPPER FLOW VERY DRY AND MOSTLY ZONAL IN THE SAME AREA. A THIN
UPPER MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 20N70W 24N50W.
CONVECTION WAS ALSO ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N72W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING E TO NEAR 23N68W WHERE
IT EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLC WATERS FROM 32N76W
TO THE FLORIDA E COAST AT 28N. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND
SE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES 1026 MB IS NEAR BERMUDA RIDGING SW TO
THE NW BAHAMAS. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG
31N43W 21N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. STILL FURTHER E...HIGH PRES NEAR THE AZORES RIDGES SW
ALONG 32N32W TO TO 24N45W.

THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED ALOFT BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AN
EMBEDDED CYCLONE NEAR 32N7W TRAILING A TROUGH SW ALONG 32N8W
22N20W 14N35W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N1E 25N6W 22N14W THEN THE DRY AIR WIDENS
COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 12N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND
20W. UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED N OF THE DRY BAND AND IS MOVING
ACROSS AFRICA TO THE N OF 26N W OF 3W. A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS NOTED OVER AFRICA NEAR 15N7E WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE
W AFRICAN COAST AT 6N11W TO A SHARP CREST AT 4N32W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
NELSON






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