[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 5N30W 6N40W 3N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-8W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 20W-30W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-40W... AND FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
30N85W.  LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 24N AND E OF 88W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
10-15 SWLY FLOW.  THE ENTIRE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER AND IS VOID
OF CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM
TAMPICO MEXICO TO S LOUISIANA TO N FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND ENTER THE NW GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 14N AND E
OF 80W.   10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S BELIZE.  ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 11N AND
E OF 65W TO INCLUDE TRINIDAD.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N PRODUCING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA.  EXPECT THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION TO BE
OVER NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N72W TO 29N78W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N61W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W
TO 24N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N25W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N41W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N64W.
MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY ZONAL
FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 25W.  AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS OVER N MOROCCO NEAR 33N3W.  IN THE DEEP
TROPICS... ELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT...
THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.  ALSO EXPECT
THE TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONT TO SHIFT ABOUT FIVE DEGREES E LONGITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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