[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 2N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N EAST OF 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
WEST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE
WATERS JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...AND EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER WITH
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N98W
26N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO
30N100W TO WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS PRESENT IN
MOST PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS BLOWING EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND A BIT OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...IT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER BERMUDA-TO-
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TROUGH...ALONG 20N54W BEYOND 32N47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 45W
AND 55W. BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A NORTHEASTERN SPAIN LOW CENTER TO AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N18W LOW CENTER TO 26N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE GUYANA COAST
NEAR 9N59W TO 17N50W 23N43W 28N38W TO AN ATLANTIC 1028 MB HIGH
CENTER NEAR 33N28W.

$$
MT


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