[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N10W 8N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 1W AND 6W...AND OFF
THE COASTS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS
OF 6.5N12W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N14W 8N20W 6N30W 4N40W
4N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE FOUND FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TOWARD FRENCH GUIANA
FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
50W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
27N110W TO 21N113W IN THE PACIFIC WATERS. AN EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH THEN COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTH TEXAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
LAST 24 HOURS IN SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALL THE PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED INTO ARKANSAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS PRESENT IN
MOST PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS BLOWING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE GULF MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
INTO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ARE SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N53W 26N51W 29N48W BEYOND 32N46W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...IT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUES INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 70W AND
76W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER BERMUDA-TO-
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TROUGH...ALONG 17N53W 24N49W BEYOND 32N46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N53W 26N51W 29N48W BEYOND 32N46W. BROAD AND
GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A NORTHEASTERN SPAIN LOW CENTER TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N17W
LOW CENTER TO 23N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE GUYANA COAST NEAR 9N59W TO 17N50W
23N43W 28N38W TO AN ATLANTIC 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N31W.

$$
MT



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