[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
8W-25W...AND BETWEEN 43W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N85W.  FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
E GULF E OF 90W.  10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W.  FAIR WEATHER ALSO DOMINATES THE W GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT OVER N FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  FAIR WEATHER AND SE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF.
RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM
TEXAS TO FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 69W-76W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER IN 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF
13N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE IS S OF
13N FROM NW VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA.  EXPECT VERY SIMILAR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING S OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-81W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N55W 27N60W
23N70W 25N78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT E OF 70W.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN
60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  WLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  ELY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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