[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS FOUND FROM 4N8W TO 1N24W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
17W AND THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 27W AND 20W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N FROM 32W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...

50 TO 70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA.  60 TO 90 KT
ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20N AND 25N AND 60W TO THE US. NORTH OF 25N
IN THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 60W THE FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY WESTERLY
BUT IS ALSO CYCLONIC DUE TO THE VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER LOW SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR WEAKER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.  A MODERATE STATIONARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
FLORIDA AT 26N79W TO 25N70W TO 28N60W.  SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WEAK SURFACE WESTERLIES AND SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE SOUTH
OF FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC ... AND WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES
OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT.  NO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY IN THE REGION ... THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A FEW ARE OCCURRING
IN A REGION EXTENDING JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AND FROM 22-25N AND
70-60W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OF UP TO
7O KT OCCUR OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KT OR LESS.  NO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS FOUND IN THE CARIBBEAN ... THOUGH MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF COLUMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS
FROM 8W AND THE WEST AFRICAN COAST TO 5N BY SOUTH AMERICA.
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE WESTERLIES OF UP TO 90 KT ARE OBSERVED.
SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. MODERATE SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN
SOUTH OF A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED AT 33N26W AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH DOWN TO 7N60W.
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ... THE
SURFACE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND REACH AS STRONG
AS 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE ATLANTIC FRONT NEAR 30N55W.  MODERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCUR IN A
REGION FROM 23-27N AND 50-60W.

$$
CWL


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