[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N11W 3N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W
AND THE EQUATOR AT 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
20W AND 25W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF
20W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6S TO 3N BETWEEN WEST OF 20W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
98W AND 101W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY FLATTENS OUT IN ORDER
TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS MET BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS RUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE 32N60W 26N62W 20N63W TROUGH
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THE 32N60W 20N63W TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS SWEEPING
INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N58W
TO 26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 27N80W...CUTTING
ACROSS FLORIDA...BEYOND 31N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N58W
26N65W 24N74W 27N80W. BROKEN LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY ARE NORTH OF THE 30N58W 27N80W LINE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE WEDGED INTO THIS DRY AIR FIELD FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF
12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 22N46W 27N44W BEYOND 32N42W IS JUST
WEST OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
32N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWS US
A RIDGE FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N26W TO 30N32W 27N38W
20N47W...TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N60W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ITS BASE NEAR 22N23W TO 26N20W TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...BEYOND 33N12W.

$$
MT


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