[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190628
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N13W 3N23W...AND WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE 3N23W 1S31W 2S44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N103W 27N99W 32N96W FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY
FLATTENS OUT IN ORDER TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. THIS FLOW IS MET BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS RUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE 32N63W 23N61W TROUGH NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THE 32N63W
23N61W TROUGH SUPPORTS THE EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS
ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N70W TO 27N76W BEYOND 31N83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W
AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N61W 31N58W
BEYOND 33N57W. THE REST OF THE FRONTAL AREA WEST OF 64W IS FILLED
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WEDGED INTO
THIS DRY AIR FIELD FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 78W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 12N76W JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 22N46W 27N44W BEYOND 32N42W IS JUST
WEST OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO
32N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOWS US
A RIDGE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 30N32W 26N39W
20N52W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W...TO A
1014 MB SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N76W...TO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF CUBA NEAR 24N83W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM ITS BASE NEAR 25N27W NORTHEASTWARD...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WATER AREAS IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...BEYOND 33N12W.

$$
MT

WWWW
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