[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...THE EQUATOR AT
45W...AND TO 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5S TO 2N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W...AND
FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W
AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 53W...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 30N128W. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD INTERIOR MEXICO...BECOMING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE IN INTERIOR MEXICO. A CUT-OFF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EAST CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PROMINENT TO THE EAST OF THE MEXICO LOW CENTER...FROM
25N91W TO 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...BEYOND 32N74W
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W 20N67W 13N79W.
A SEPARATE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...AS A RESULT OF
BEING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 27N53W TO AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N66W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO 24N79W...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
27N87W AND 27N94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 19N70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD DROP MORE TO THE SOUTH... CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS
OVER A GOOD PART OF FLORIDA AND LIKELY HEATING UP THE EAST COAST
OF THE STATE TO THE DREADED 90 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT MARK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REACHING 25N91W. SOME OF THIS FLOW SPLITS
OFF AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WHILE THE
REST OF IT JUST GOES NORTHWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W
20N67W 13N79W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 19N70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 33N52W TO 28N53W TO 23N55W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA IN WHICH THE STATIONARY FRONT...FOR THE LAST WEEK OR
MORE...HAS BEEN POSITIONED...THROUGH 32N44W TO A 1013 MB LOW
CENTER NEAR 29N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 25N50W...WITH
A COLD FRONT CONTINUING FROM THIS LOW TO 19N57W. A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 19N57W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N63W.
IT IS MORE PROBABLE THAT THE INITIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EASTWARD, AND
MAY RECEIVE ENERGY FROM THIS 33N52W 23N55W TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS ALONG 23W/24W NORTH OF 26N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
THE 33N52W 23N55W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 14N58W TO
17N50W TO 24N38W TO 28N33W BEYOND 32N27W.

$$
MT

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