[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162306
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 2N30W EQ40W INTO S AMERICA NEAR 1N52W.
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 20W-26W AND WITHIN 75
NM OF 1.5N16.5W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS S OF A LINE FROM
5N51W 2N43W 1.5N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH FEW CLOUDS.
MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF
THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SE MEXICO... HELPING TO
FIRE A FEW INLAND TSTMS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CAUSING QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IN THE AREA.  JUST A FEW LOW/MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE TX/LA
COASTS AND IN THE E-CENTRAL GULF.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD NUDGE INTO THE
NW GULF ON WED.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD DROP MORE
TO THE SOUTH... CAUSING WLY WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF FLORIDA
AND LIKELY HEATING UP THE E COAST OF THE STATE TO THE DREADED
90F MARK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTROLS THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE NE PART
WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE
SUBSIDENCE NOTED ABOVE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND IS
STRONGEST N OF ABOUT 18N.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING DEWPOINTS BELOW
70F.  A FEW ENHANCED SHOWER AREAS REMAIN NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS
AND LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND BARBADOS... OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE.  TRADES HAVE RECOVERED IN THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY
ARE FULLY RESTORED IN THE REST OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAKNESS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAXIMIZES TUE/WED.
MORE TYPICAL SHOWER/TSTMS ARE LIKELY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD.

ATLANTIC...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE
AREA.  FIRST TROUGH IS DIVING THRU THE W & CENTRAL ATLC FROM
31N55W SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO.  PAIR OF LOWS IS ALONG AN
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 20N57W WITH A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 28.5N46.5W AND A WEAKER 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 51W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH
A BROAD 1018 MB CENTER JUST NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  TO THE
E... ANOMALOUSLY-STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTROLS THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEWARD THRU THE E-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH BROAD RIDE FROM
4N51W TO 30N30W.  RIDGE IS QUITE AMPLIFIED AND RESEMBLES A
PATTERN MORE LIKELY SEEN IN THE DEEP TROPICS CLOSER TO HURRICANE
SEASON.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE A PLENTY ON THE N EDGE OF THE RIDGE N
OF 22N E OF 40W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET OUTSIDE OF THE
ITCZ.  IN THE E ATLC.. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST
OF AFRICA SOUTHWARD TO 2N21W ASSISTING DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IN GUINEA.  AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN THIS WEEK AS MORE
TYPICAL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA.    HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE NE ATLC WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY
HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES E OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE



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